Ten years following the UK embarked on a rushed public vote that polarised the nation and caused chaos, a advisory comes from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and voters drifted into Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating disturbances for which nobody is ready.
That conveys the caution from two prominent writers from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a possibly contentious and monumental public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole remarked. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Released Volume Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The team have examined the governmental, financial and societal arguments for any governmental shift in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the issue with a series of speaking events that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles all parties, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose implications have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an highly polarised community where those defeated are unable to accept losing and the victorious side lack clarity precisely what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say this point is approaching, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the prospect, leaving it unclear whether or when there could be a national vote.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has hidden the shortage of serious debate, stated the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the idea but the actual thinking which may surpass that to make it possible is mostly absent. Much has gone on in universities but hardly any politicians or advocates are willing to participate with the essentials. For instance, what type of nation would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, no writer advocates unity or the status quo. Each authors two essays that aim for neutrality in laying out the case for a united Ireland and the case against, marshalling economic and social statistics, historical precedents and structural examples.
Debates range over national emblems, duties, medical care, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The goal is to inform and provoke discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there is still lacking a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Discussion indicates an acknowledgement of the notion that there may exist good arguments on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where voters claim they prefer unification but refuse increased taxation or introducing a new flag to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland must work out what the proposal from Irish nationalism is other than just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," said the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist thinks a national vote in his lifetime is probable and that it could happen suddenly. "You could have just a mad or a ill-advised or a negligent official who states: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid arguments, he stated. "One side will prevail here and the other side will in the end lose but both parties has has important lessons to gain from the alternative positions."
Appeal for Broader Dialogue
Westminster must participate in the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It is a British question as much as it is an Irish matter."
